Central Connecticut

Conference:	NEC
Expected RPI:	263.0
Current RPI:	263
Expected SOS:	332
Current SOS:	332
Current Record:	14-18
Expected Record:	14-18
Current Conf Record:	7-12
Expected Conf Record:	7-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	12-9
Current OOC Record:	7-6
Expected OOC Record:	7-6
Expected OOC RPI:	206
Expected OOC SOS:	341

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
14-18	263.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Central Connecticut.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Hartford (198.0)	AE	A	85-84	L	0%
11-12	Rutgers (203.0)	B10	A	71-67	L	0%
11-14	St. John's (92.0)	BE	A	80-55	L	0%
11-17	East Carolina (274.0)	Amer	A	68-79	W	100%
11-21	Coppin St. (343.0)	MEAC	H	74-71	W	100%
11-24	Cleveland St. (282.0)	Horz	A	73-74	W	100%
11-30	North Carolina A&T (238.0)	MEAC	H	72-59	W	100%
12-2	Brown (298.0)	Ivy	A	62-68	W	100%
12-6	DePaul (186.0)	BE	A	85-57	L	0%
12-9	Northern Illinois (241.0)	MAC	A	61-55	L	0%
12-17	Boston College (96.0)	ACC	A	84-65	L	0%
12-20	Maine (338.0)	AE	H	84-57	W	100%
12-23	UMass Lowell (289.0)	AE	A	73-76	W	100%
12-29	St. Francis PA (178.0)	NEC	H	72-68	W	100%
12-31	Robert Morris (196.0)	NEC	H	57-71	L	0%
1-4	Fairleigh Dickinson (254.0)	NEC	A	81-77	L	0%
1-6	Mount St. Mary's (225.0)	NEC	A	78-51	L	0%
1-11	St. Francis NY (276.0)	NEC	A	77-60	L	0%
1-13	Bryant (341.0)	NEC	H	80-76	W	100%
1-18	Fairleigh Dickinson (254.0)	NEC	H	66-65	W	100%
1-20	LIU Brooklyn (232.0)	NEC	H	72-63	W	100%
1-25	Bryant (341.0)	NEC	A	74-80	W	100%
1-27	LIU Brooklyn (232.0)	NEC	A	94-89	L	0%
2-1	Wagner (109.0)	NEC	A	72-59	L	0%
2-3	Sacred Heart (321.0)	NEC	A	67-54	L	0%
2-8	Mount St. Mary's (225.0)	NEC	H	57-71	L	0%
2-10	Sacred Heart (321.0)	NEC	H	50-67	L	0%
2-15	St. Francis PA (178.0)	NEC	A	77-71	L	0%
2-17	Robert Morris (196.0)	NEC	A	58-65	W	100%
2-22	Wagner (109.0)	NEC	H	62-64	L	0%
2-24	St. Francis NY (276.0)	NEC	H	78-75	W	100%
2-28	Wagner (109.0)	NEC	A	73-61	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Central Connecticut's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Central Connecticut's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Central Connecticut.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Central Connecticut	NEC	26.39	26.39	48.53	48.53	-0.78	-0.78
Wagner	NEC	5.66	5.66	66.67	66.67	1.89	1.89
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	4.31	4.31	51.61	51.61	0.14	0.14
Robert Morris	NEC	4.14	4.14	48.39	48.39	-0.13	-0.13
Sacred Heart	NEC	4.13	4.13	25.00	25.00	-2.06	-2.06
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	4.13	4.13	37.04	37.04	-1.07	-1.07
Bryant	NEC	4.09	4.09	10.34	10.34	-3.24	-3.24
St. Francis NY	NEC	4.08	4.08	37.04	37.04	-1.06	-1.06
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	4.07	4.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	4.05	4.05	57.69	57.69	0.62	0.62
Hartford	AE	1.99	1.99	56.67	56.67	0.27	0.27
UMass Lowell	AE	1.87	1.87	39.29	39.29	-0.40	-0.40
Rutgers	B10	1.77	1.77	40.62	40.62	-0.33	-0.33
Maine	AE	1.74	1.74	13.79	13.79	-1.26	-1.26
Brown	Ivy	1.74	1.74	40.00	40.00	-0.35	-0.35
Coppin St.	MEAC	1.71	1.71	16.13	16.13	-1.16	-1.16
Boston College	ACC	1.67	1.67	54.55	54.55	0.15	0.15
St. John's	BE	1.66	1.66	45.16	45.16	-0.16	-0.16
East Carolina	Amer	1.66	1.66	34.48	34.48	-0.51	-0.51
Cleveland St.	Horz	1.64	1.64	33.33	33.33	-0.55	-0.55
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	1.61	1.61	58.06	58.06	0.26	0.26
DePaul	BE	1.61	1.61	33.33	33.33	-0.54	-0.54
Northern Illinois	MAC	1.56	1.56	34.48	34.48	-0.48	-0.48
Stony Brook	AE	0.31	0.31	38.71	38.71	-0.07	-0.07
NJIT	ASun	0.26	0.26	42.86	42.86	-0.04	-0.04
Binghamton	AE	0.26	0.26	31.03	31.03	-0.10	-0.10
Seton Hall	BE	0.25	0.25	65.62	65.62	0.08	0.08
Georgetown	BE	0.25	0.25	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UMBC	AE	0.23	0.23	67.74	67.74	0.08	0.08
New Hampshire	AE	0.23	0.23	27.59	27.59	-0.10	-0.10
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.21	0.21	23.08	23.08	-0.11	-0.11
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.21	0.21	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Albany	AE	0.21	0.21	67.74	67.74	0.07	0.07
Providence	BE	0.20	0.20	61.76	61.76	0.05	0.05
Marquette	BE	0.20	0.20	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
American	Pat	0.19	0.19	20.00	20.00	-0.11	-0.11
Vermont	AE	0.18	0.18	78.79	78.79	0.11	0.11
Notre Dame	ACC	0.18	0.18	57.58	57.58	0.03	0.03
Fordham	A10	0.15	0.15	29.03	29.03	-0.06	-0.06
Rider	MAAC	0.15	0.15	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.15	0.15	6.67	6.67	-0.13	-0.13
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.14	0.14	20.00	20.00	-0.08	-0.08
Northwestern	B10	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Navy	Pat	0.13	0.13	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.13	0.13	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Miami OH	MAC	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	BE	0.12	0.12	84.85	84.85	0.09	0.09
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.11	0.11	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.11	0.11	26.92	26.92	-0.05	-0.05
Lehigh	Pat	0.11	0.11	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Duke	ACC	0.10	0.10	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Missouri	SEC	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.10	0.10	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.10	0.10	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.10	0.10	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Tulane	Amer	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	BE	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Creighton	BE	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Villanova	BE	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Siena	MAAC	0.10	0.10	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Hampton	MEAC	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Michigan St.	B10	0.10	0.10	87.88	87.88	0.07	0.07
Nebraska	B10	0.09	0.09	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Ohio St.	B10	0.09	0.09	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Cornell	Ivy	0.09	0.09	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Penn	Ivy	0.09	0.09	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.08	0.08	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola MD	Pat	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Niagara	MAAC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	B10	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	Amer	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
UCF	Amer	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Toledo	MAC	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Western Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	Amer	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.07	0.07	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.07	0.07	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Illinois	B10	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Milwaukee	Horz	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.07	0.07	82.35	82.35	0.05	0.05
Clemson	ACC	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.07	0.07	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Oakland	Horz	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Harvard	Ivy	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.06	0.06	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Longwood	BSth	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Army	Pat	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	Sum	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Boston University	Pat	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Houston	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
SMU	Amer	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
South Florida	Amer	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Tulsa	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
IUPUI	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Syracuse	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	3.33	3.33	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	Amer	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.02	0.02	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
New Orleans	Slnd	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.02	0.02	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.02	0.02	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01